BASE Jumping, Wiz, Aura

🔒 Google had to take a massive Wiz - Pretty crass humor for a newsletter about the economy and being a serious investor, but I’ve had a long day so who cares. Google purchased the cybersecurity startup Wiz for $32 billion in an all-cash transaction. The transaction is Google’s largest acquisition to date, and the largest transaction of 2025. If you are feeling deja vu, it isn’t just you; Google and Wiz had been in talks for a $23 billion deal last year, but the deal fell through amidst regulatory concerns from investors. In a more forgiving administration, the talks resurfaced, and terms were met. Craziest part about this all, the company was founded in 2020.

🥤 Poppi really popped off - PepsiCo really follows the credo gut health is the best health as they purchase the prebiotic soda, Poppi, for a cool $1.95 billion. The deal comes amidst a number of PR nightmares at the gut friendly soda brand, including the allegedly “tone-deaf” advertisement in which they gifted $25k vending machines to influencers for a Super Bowl ad. Additionally, the good for you soda might not actually be that good for you as they had to pay an $8.9 million settlement following a class action lawsuit that proved the sodas weren’t actually healthy for your gut as had been advertised.

📁 File now, raise later - That was a pun related to the “buy now, pay later” company that is looking to go public. Klarna has filed to go public via an IPO in the US. Once a Pandemic darling, the company was valued at $46 billion in a Softbank-led financing. In 2022, the company saw its valuation drop by 85% to $6.7 billion. While not recovering the full drop, analysts predict an IPO valuation of roughly $15 billion following the company’s recent growth and push for profitability. Time will tell on the valuation and when they will look to go public.

Get yourself a significant other that listens to you the same way markets listen to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

What happened?

In the latest Fed meeting, the man with the plan stood strong and held interest rates at their target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. While the Fed maintained current rates, they still foresee at least 2 more interest rate cuts before the end of the 2025. While overall, the meeting was a mixed bag, the market reacted positively to the news and outlook from the Fed.

What else does the Fed see on the go forward?

The current economic environment has left the Fed feeling uncertain about the future. Prior to the start of the year, the fight against inflation seemed to be making headway (cut it from 5.5% to 2.5%), but then, the threat of tariffs has thrown all of their hard work to the wind (revised their forecast from 2.5% this year to 2.7%). Tariffs will raise prices on goods imported to the US, which in turn raises inflation. However, typically, when inflation rises rapid economic growth is one of the drivers of the higher inflation, but in some circumstances, inflation rises at such a fast pace, while economic growth slows, which is what is known as “stagflation.” The Fed has projected out slower economic growth (from 2.1% projected GDP growth to 1.7%) and increased inflation, meaning they are seeing indicators of stagflation on the horizon.

While stagflation wouldn’t be the greatest thing for the economy, Powell publicly stated that the 2 levers (inflation and GDP growth) balance each other out in these regards. Heading into the year, the Fed’s stance of lowering interest rates was due to 1 of 2 things: 1) inflation hitting their healthy growth target of 2%; 2) the labor market softening. While inflation may be rising above their healthy growth rate, Powell contends that because GDP growth is lowering, the Fed would use their primary tool at their disposal to stimulate growth: lowering interest rates, which means the Fed still sees 2 more interest rate cuts before the end of the year.

While the Fed does not make a formal forecast around recession probabilities, Powell discussed that economists outside of the Fed have moved up the likelihood of a recession slightly, but that the economic downturn is still unlikely.

What does that mean for me as an investor?

When bull markets occur, everyone wins; when bear markets occur, some win and some lose; when markets are uncertain, that’s when legendary investors are made.

While you cannot time a market, having conviction and a strict regimen can help you have outsized returns in times of turmoil. Continuing to invest through the uncertainty into uncorrelated assets, like real estate, can help you weather the times when even the next month is uncertain.

When in isolation, the trade wars and the tariff discussions are hurtful in the short term to consumers, but in the long term, if able to move production to the US, that could be beneficial to everyone in the long run. I am not trying to make this political by any means, purely looking at the data. We can use data to argue for both sides of the equation, but we are using the data to argue for real estate, and right now, we are bullish, as evidenced by our acquisitions. Our buying power is at an all-time high, we are not entering into bidding wars, we are buying at discounts, we are buying with contingencies, we are locking in accretive leverage, and we are purchasing performing assets in areas with economic growth on the horizon even in the event of trade wars.

Much in the same vein as our five other sold-out Houston properties, The Celeste has generated incredible demand since launch. In less than 48 hours, this exciting Houston STR has already raised over $89,000.

This early momentum highlights investor confidence in a property backed by two full years of verified Airbnb performance. The Celeste, a fully-furnished 6-bedroom home near a number of Houston’s top attractions, has consistently delivered NOI yields above 10% and featured recent annual collections exceeding $130K (net of fees). Underwriting conservatively forecasts year-one rents at approximately $126K, positioning investors for immediate income generation.

Interested in learning more about this opportunity? Join us this upcoming Tuesday for our monthly webinar as we do a deep dive around this beautiful property.

Houston is a hotbed of opportunity for savvy investors, with strong market fundamentals driven by consistent economic growth and robust tourism. The Celeste’s numbers clearly illustrate this opportunity: a Year 1 yield of 8.2%, a levered IRR of 15.1%, and a projected levered MOIC of 2.5x, translating into significant long-term value and day one cash-flow.

Spots in our Houston properties don’t last long, so make sure you secure your share in The Celeste before it's too late.

Invest Now

• March Madness kicked off, and my bracket was busted a few hours in. However, because I read about a team manager signing multiple NIL deals for his rap abilities (rapper name is Aura), I did pick McNeese over Clemson.
• Don’t know if you had heard, but a few years ago Elon Musk purchased Twitter for $44 billion. Then, the valuation came crashing down by more than 70% as advertisers fled the site. Now, a few years later, investors are saying it is worth $44 billion. While financials are not public, sources have said on a heavily adjusted EBITDA basis, the company has achieved $1.2 billion in EBITDA, which is the same as before Musk’s acquisition. Again, this is heavily adjusted and financials are not fully available, but if true, this could be an absurd rebound.
• Despite the shakiness in the economy, home sales in February jumped up by 4.2%. This is a massive shock, given analysts had been projecting a 3.2% monthly decrease. Good time to be a real estate investor.

I have written about his other books in prior newsletters, but this one is, in my opinion, even more thought provoking than Yuval Noah Harari's other works. He extrapolates that technological advancement is the result of war and religion. He presents data to support these claims, and it redefines the way you think about the future of technological advancement in an ever-changing landscape.

⭐ 4.69 / 5.0 in my book (no pun intended)

1. "The Chinese Fireball, oooooooohhhhhh"
2. "Boys workin' on empty. Is that the kinda way to face a burning heat?"
3. "We're allowed to show them nude cuz they ain't got no souls"

2 men went BASE jumping from an apartment building in Arlington, Virginia. The two entered an apartment building, went to the roof, and jumped off with parachutes. They were arrested and charged. The crazy thing is BASE jumping is legal in Virginia, and the 2 men are being charged with trespassing and illegally wearing a mask. Theoretically, as long as I am maskless and doing it from my own building, I can BASE jump. Honestly, just kind hilarious.

1. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (Barty Crouch)
2. Work Song (Hozier)
3. I Think You Should Leave (Tim Robinson)