December 8, 2024
Good afternoon. You are only 12 days away from the world slowing to a snail's pace as you head into the holidays and end of year. Based on the number of OOO emails I have received over the last week, I am assuming some of you might be <12 days out.
Regardless, we at mogul will still be working to give you market-beating returns even through the holidays. If you all get a chance to tell relatives about mogul this holiday season, we would be eternally grateful. If you don't, well, I hope you like coal.
The intent of this newsletter is to educate. While in the first newsletter we had only one reference to mogul, I will admit there are two in this one. Feel free to skip over them if you want, but we do have to pay the bills somehow. With that, here is everything that happened over the past week, or at least the stuff we chose to write about.
- Alex Blackwood
🍗 November is all gravy for labor - October was spooky for two reasons this year: 1) Halloween 2) the labor market added only 36k jobs. The report had analysts biting their nails in anticipation of the November news. The theory was October slowed because of hurricanes and strike-related distortions. Well, Friday, analysts let out a bigger sigh than when you unbutton your pants after heaps of gravy and turkey, as the labor market added 227k jobs in November. This was above the 214k anticipated. People will be on the lookout for next week's inflation report to see what the Fed does...more on that below.
👂 Powell talks, we all listen - Before Fed Chair Jerome Powell entered the traditional pre-Fed meeting quiet period, he stated that the Fed had wanted to "send a strong signal that we were going to support the labor market if it continued to weaken." The Fed will cut rates on the basis of one of two things happening: 1) inflation stabilizes at 2% 2) the labor market weakens. The Fed had cut interest rates by 0.50% in September due to a softening labor market, and now analysts are pricing a cut at the upcoming December 17-18 meeting. However, with the most recent jobs report and an inflation report due out next week, the Fed may be convinced to hold steady at the current rates. Will Powell be a grinch or Santa this holiday season?
🪨 Heaps of cash - The asset management industry took notice when Blackrock announced their purchase of HPS for $12 billion on Tuesday. The acquisition does three major things: 1) boosts alternative assets under management by 25% to $600 billion 2) moves Blackrock firmly into the private credit space, which is considered one of the hottest industries right now on Wall Street 3) reaffirms the trend of consolidation in the asset management industry, so clients can have a one-stop-shop for all their investment needs. All I am saying - there is a Blackrock, a Blackstone, no Blackwood (my last name), amirite?
Pretty ironic that the digital asset created as an anti-establishment, cross-border currency is embracing the incoming US administration and growing like crazy as a result.
In just four weeks since Election Day, the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has jumped more than 40% to an all-time high greater than $100,000. Overall, the cryptocurrency asset class has swelled to more than $3 trillion.
Over the previous four years, officials within the Biden administration have created a hostile environment for digital assets and companies with ties to digital assets. Here are some of the highlights:
While Biden himself never came out as explicitly anti-crypto, regulators created a hostile environment that led many firms to either leave the US altogether or fight charges brought against them. In a world of mass crypto-adoption, if the US loses its place as a top crypto innovator, economic power could shift.
President-elect Donald Trump has publicly promised to “end Joe Biden’s war on crypto.” Trump dropped an early skepticism of Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies and actually leveraged blockchain (the technology that cryptocurrencies rely on) to raise funds for his campaign. After the election, several Trump initiatives have affirmed his campaign promises, including:
When crypto companies left the US, they cited the reason being a lack of clear regulation around crypto. Over the past four years, regulators have lashed out at crypto, lost a number of times, and failed to establish clear rules for the industry. With a majority of regulators pro-crypto and Trump calling himself the “Crypto President”, crypto enthusiasts are hoping for a clear path for crypto in the US, which has pushed the price of Bitcoin above $100k.
Whether pro or anti crypto, the incoming administration is taking the necessary steps for crypto to flourish in the US. Crypto has been incredibly volatile, but with the increased institutional & consumer involvement as it becomes more mainstream, the volatility may subside to a degree. This article may come across as somewhat biased, as we at mogul leverage blockchain technology as a more efficient back office. Even if you don’t understand crypto, you are receiving all of the benefits in the form of lower fees and higher returns.
ICYMI: Spots for our exclusive webinar on Wednesday, December 11, at 7PM EST are going quickly, and I don’t want you to miss out.
Joey and I are excited to share:
✅ Behind-the-scenes insights into how mogul is transforming real estate investing
✅ Our take on the current market and where we see things heading in 2025
✅ Real-world case studies showing how everyday investors are building wealth with mogul
And of course, answering all your questions in a live Q&A
If you’ve already signed up, you’re all set - you’ll receive your invitation soon. But if not, now’s the time to secure your spot.
Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just getting started, this is your chance to connect with us directly. Between Joey and me, we have over $10bn in transactional volume during our time at Goldman Sachs, and we can’t wait to share what we’ve learned.
DON'T PANIC. That is a reference to the book btw. I wish I could go back to before I had read this one, just so I could read it again for the first time. It is comedy mixed with science fiction about an Englishman's, Arthur Dent, travels throughout the galaxy after the destruction of earth.
It is a classic that is constantly referenced throughout popular culture. In fact, when Elon Musk shot a Tesla into space, "DON'T PANIC" was displayed on the dashboard. Seriously, read this one. I apologize to those around you, as I was cackling out loud as I read it.
⭐ 4.88 / 5.0 in my book (no pun intended)
The exact origins of New Orleans being called the "Big Easy" are unknown. However, there are several theories as to why it is called that, including: i) a reference to the laid-back lifestyle by a New Orleans gossip columnist, taken from the "Big Apple" ii) "easy" prohibition laws during the time of 1920-1933 in which the laws in New Orleans were more lax iii) the booming jazz scene. Given my coffee order at the nearby shop taking 10 minutes with no line, I am betting it was the laid-back lifestyle one. And no, I did not order a triple skim, half decaf, two pumps of caramel latte.
Written by Alex Blackwood & Thomas Horcel
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