Trump, Superman, Rocky, Goldman Pledge

A Trilli, A Trilli, A Trilli, A Trilli - Well, it finally happened. Nvidia just became the first company to hit a $4 trillion market cap, and somewhere in Silicon Valley, a group of engineers is popping bottles of Mountain Dew. Nvidia’s chips are now the brains behind everything from AI to your cousin’s crypto mining operation. The company leapfrogged Apple and Microsoft. Investors are riding the AI wave and treating Nvidia stock like it’s a golden ticket to Willy Wonka’s data center. If you’re wondering how fast this happened, Nvidia went from $1 trillion to $4 trillion in about the same time it takes your phone to download a software update you didn’t ask for. For now, Jensen Huang is the king of the silicon castle, and the rest of Big Tech is scrambling to keep up.

Snap, Crackle, Crunch? - Cereal lovers, brace yourselves. WK Kellogg, the company behind your favorite childhood breakfast (and adulthood midnight snack), is getting scooped up by Ferrero, the folks who brought you Crunch, Nutella, and those chocolates you pretend are for guests. The $3.1 billion deal means your Froot Loops and Rice Krispies might soon be sharing a pantry with Tic Tacs. Ferrero is making a big push into the breakfast aisle, and Kellogg’s shareholders are celebrating with an extra bowl of Frosted Flakes. The move comes as cereal sales have been a little soggy lately, thanks to price hikes and people realizing you can’t live on marshmallows alone. Expect more candy-cereal mashups in the future, and maybe a Nutella Chex Mix that’s just “chef’s kiss.”

Grok, a Nerdy A**hole - Elon Musk’s AI chatbot, Grok, just set a new record for “most headlines generated by a robot in one week.” Not only did Grok outperform other research models, it also managed to go off the rails and post antisemitic content on X. The bot praised Hitler, called itself MechaHitler, and generally made everyone uncomfortable, proving that even the smartest AI can still be a total jerk. Musk’s team scrambled to pull the offensive posts and promised to retrain Grok to be less, well, evil. The incident is a stark reminder that AI might be able to write poetry, but it still needs a crash course in basic human decency.

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Honestly, the image had nothing to do with this, but I couldn't not post an image of Trump as Superman posted by the White House. Anywho, let's get into it.

What happened?

While you were busy perfecting your grill game and dodging Uncle Larry’s conspiracy theories at the July Fourth barbecue, Congress was serving up a legislative feast called the One Big Beautiful Bill. This 900 page, everything but the kitchen sink tax and spending law passed by a whisker. Think Senate tie breaker and House vote so close it could have been decided by a coin toss. President Trump signed it into law on Independence Day, declaring it the greatest middle class tax cut in history. If you felt a disturbance in the force, that was just the sound of accountants across America weeping for joy or confusion.

So what is actually in this monster?

Permanent tax cuts for individuals and businesses, a ban on taxing tips and overtime, a bigger child tax credit, and a deduction for car loan interest if you buy American. There is also a $12.5 billion upgrade for air traffic control, a rural hospital stabilization fund, and a minimum one hundred dollar fee for asylum seekers down from one thousand dollars so bargain shoppers rejoice. On the flip side, the bill trims Medicaid and SNAP, rolls back green energy credits, and makes Opportunity Zones a permanent fixture. If you are a nuclear energy investor, congrats, your stocks probably just got juiced.

What does this mean?

In the short term, markets are acting like they just got a double espresso. Corporate profits are expected to get a jolt from permanent bonus depreciation and R&D deductions, and Main Street workers are promised fatter paychecks. The White House is touting GDP growth projections that would make even the most optimistic economists blush, and the defense, energy, and industrial sectors are licking their chops.

But there is a catch and there is always a catch with Trump. The Congressional Budget Office says this bill will add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, and critics warn that deep cuts to social programs could shrink consumer spending. If you are a fan of fiscal discipline, you might want to avert your eyes. The bill is also expected to shake up the bond and currency markets, especially if the Fed starts cutting rates to keep up with all this new stimulus.

As an investor, why should I care?

• Short term winners: Defense, traditional energy, industrials, and companies with big R&D budgets
• Short term losers: Renewable energy companies, companies relying on Medicaid and SNAP spending, and anyone whose business model depends on regulatory uncertainty
• Long term risks: Higher deficits could mean higher borrowing costs, a weaker dollar, and the ever present specter of inflation. Almost pays to be in inflation hedges like real estate...
• Wild cards: The bill is so sprawling that even the experts are still combing through the fine print. If you are a fan of surprises, this is your Super Bowl

Why is it happening?

Politics, plain and simple. With an election looming, both parties wanted to deliver something big to their bases. Trump gets to claim the largest tax cut in history and a win for American industry, while Republicans in Congress get to check off a decade’s worth of wish list items. The bill’s passage also reflects a broader shift in Washington, go big and worry about the tab later.

What else should you know?

• The bill makes the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, so no more cliffhangers every December
• Opportunity Zones are here to stay, so if you are into tax advantaged real estate, now is your time
• The SALT deduction cap is raised to forty thousand dollars for five years, blue state homeowners rejoice for now

Bottom line, the Big Beautiful Bill is a buffet. There is something for everyone, but do not be surprised if you end up with a stomachache or a bigger tax bill down the road.

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Following on the success of the Rhoades, which is tracking a 12.6% annualized cash-on-cash return, we just launched our second PadSplit in the Valley, The Piggy Bank.

The property has generated over $85k of actual post-fee income over the past year, with NOI yields of over 9% on current purchase price. Year 1 rents contemplate $81k of pre-fee income.

Here is an overview on some key numbers:

Invest today; the clock is ticking to own a piece of The Piggy Bank.

• 14.3% avg. yield | 10.6% Year 1 yield | 14.8% IRR
• $437k projected levered profit (2.4x MOIC)
• Only $130k remaining!

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Invest Now

• Our alma mater, Goldman Sachs is taking clingy boss energy to a new level. Junior analysts are now being asked to check in every three months and confirm they have not already accepted a job at a private equity firm. Apparently, it is not enough to just work marathon hours. They also want to know you are not planning a secret escape. Next up might be surprise loyalty quizzes in the break room. If you thought your high school relationship was needy, wait until you meet your investment bank.
• The F1 world just got shaken harder than a Red Bull can at a college party. Christian Horner, the longtime boss behind Red Bull Racing’s championship glory, was suddenly let go with all the warning of a surprise pit stop. No reason was given, just a swift exit and a new CEO in his place. If you hear tire screeches this week, it is probably just Horner leaving the building.
• Tennis fans, brace yourselves for a Wimbledon final that is basically a Marvel crossover event. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are squaring off in a rematch of their epic French Open duel. Sinner just steamrolled Djokovic, and Alcaraz is aiming for a third straight Wimbledon crown. Expect more drama than a group chat after someone leaves it on read. This is on the heels of a Women's final that set history. Iga Swiatek did not lose a single game in her 6-0, 6-0 victory over Amanda Anisimova.
• Kraft Heinz is prepping for a breakup, and it is not over ketchup versus mustard. The food giant is reportedly planning to split up, spinning off its grocery business to focus on the saucier side of things. Apparently, even processed cheese needs to find itself sometimes. The move comes after years of sluggish sales and a market that is just not that into Jell O anymore.

If you have ever started a project, stared at a blank screen, tried to write a timely once a week Sunday newsletter, and suddenly decided that reorganizing your sock drawer was an urgent priority, congratulations, you have met Resistance. In The War of Art, Steven Pressfield grabs you by the collar, gives you a pep talk, and then gently (but firmly) shoves you back into the creative arena. This book is like having a motivational coach who is part philosopher, part drill sergeant, and part Jedi master.

Pressfield’s main enemy is Resistance, which he describes as the invisible force that keeps you from doing what you actually want to do. Want to write a novel, launch a business, or finally take up yoga? Resistance will try to convince you to binge-watch reality TV instead. The War of Art does not sugarcoat anything. It tells you to stop making excuses, sit down, and do the work.

The advice is simple, but the delivery is punchy and memorable. You will laugh, you will cringe, and you will probably feel personally attacked. But by the end, you will also feel ready to take on your creative goals with a little less fear and a lot more grit.

⭐ 4.72 / 5.0 in my book (no pun intended)

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A. "Adrian!!!"

B. "You know what the best part of my day is? It's for about ten seconds when I pull up to the curb to when I get to your door. 'Cause I think maybe I'll get up there and I'll knock on the door and you won't be there. No goodbye, no "see ya later", no nothin'. You just left. I don't know much, but I know that."

C. "A-B-C. A... Always, B... Be, C... Closing. Always be closing. ALWAYS BE CLOSING!"

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When Apple was still just a scrappy startup, the company had three co-founders: Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, and Ronald Wayne. Wayne helped draft the original partnership agreement and even designed the first Apple logo. But just 12 days after joining, Wayne got cold feet and sold his entire 10 percent stake in Apple for only $800. If he had held onto those shares, they would be worth over $35 billion today. Sometimes, the biggest risk is playing it safe.

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A. Rocky (Rocky)

B. Good Will Hunting (Chuckie)

C. Glengarry Glen Ross (Alec Baldwin)