Will Ferrell, Fig Newton Sticker, $1 Trillion

👁️‍🗨️ Read the room Elon - In a crazy turn of events, Elon and a group of investors lobbed in a $97.4 billion all-cash bid to buy OpenAI.The offer letter includes several stipulations that make it untenable, such as granting full access to OpenAI’s financials before payment (which, while normal for M&A talks, would expose critical information to Musk’s x.AI), contradicting Musk’s lawsuit, and withdrawing the bid if OpenAI remains a nonprofit. The OpenAI board has officially rejected the offer, with Sam Altman adding a sarcastic counteroffer on X: “No thank you but we will buy twitter for $9.74 billion if you want.”

🚀 Robinhood’s Trump Bump - The election has been like nitrous for Robinhood as shares soared to record highs, nearly a 12% jump in a day this past week. Net income totaled $916 million last quarter, which was up from $30 million a year earlier. The major story was revenue from customer trades tripling to $672 million, with over half of the revenue coming from crypto trades. Crypto trading on Robinhood is like wearing Supreme on a long board, hype on top of more hype.

💊 Gut health is the best health - Olipop, the prebiotic soda of choice for yours truly, just raised a $50 million funding round at a $1.85 billion valuation. In 2024, the company reached profitability, while annual sales surpassed $400 million last year. On the heels of this announcement, I placed an Olipop sticker on my windshield and could be heard proclaiming, “This sticker is dangerous and inconvenient, but I do love Fig Newtons Olipop.”

Starting off this section, let me tell you I am also sick of talking about this, but it is incredibly relevant to investing and markets. I feel like Chazz Michael Michaels about to skate out for Grublets on ice with the woodland creatures, as in I'm tired of talking about it.

Inflation. I previously dove into what inflation is and why it should matter in an article linked here.

But here it goes.

What is inflation?

Inflation is a measure used by the market to determine how quickly prices for goods and services rise or fall over a given period of time. Too much inflation means the value of your dollar falls in relation to the prices of goods and services. Too little inflation or deflation and the economy stalls out. We need inflation in healthy doses to make sure the “big wheels keep on turning.”

What happened this past week?

The January inflation report came out Wednesday, and core inflation increased from December’s 3.2% to 3.3%. The core inflation is the preferred metric used by the Fed to determine health of the economy vs. “headline inflation”, which refers to the overall inflation rate of the economy. “Headline inflation” refers to the overall inflation rate in an economy, including volatile components like food and energy prices, while "core inflation" excludes these volatile items, providing a more stable measure of the underlying inflationary trend within an economy.

While analysts had projected an increase in inflation, the increase was larger than anticipated. Analysts had projected an increase of 0.3% from December to January vs. the 0.4% that actually occurred. The drivers of the increase include soaring egg prices, increased housing costs, vehicle insurance, airfare and education price. Meanwhile, prices fell for appliances, furniture and many types of apparel — possibly reflecting holiday-season discounts.

What is the outlook?

While too early to tell the impacts of all factors of Trump’s sweeping regulatory changes, the tariffs do not help the fight against inflation one bit, which could mean an increase in inflation past the current rate.

What does it mean for me?

Prices for goods and services will increase, so investing into inflation hedges like real estate (wink, wink), gold, and stocks is a way to protect against inflation. An inflation hedge is an investment that protects the value of money from inflation. The hedge is expected to increase or maintain its value during inflation.

What the Fed is saying

The below is taken from an NBC news piece, but honestly it works really well to explain everything going on succinctly.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economy was “strong overall,” with the central bank having made “significant progress” wrestling inflation toward its 2% goal over the past two years. He told the Senate that the Fed is well positioned to adjust interest rates depending on how economic growth evolves but indicated that it's prepared to keep them higher for longer.

“If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly,” Powell said.

Our newest, The Prince, is a standout opportunity where Atlanta’s red-hot rental demand meets PadSplit’s proven, cash-flowing model. Building on the success of our other PadSplit The Rhoades, which recently delivered 1.2% monthly cash-on-cash returns, this property is poised to not only replicate but exceed its success. With over a year of verified operating data and an impressive NOI yield of more than 10%, The Prince presents an exciting offering in one of America’s most dynamic markets.

The property boasts exciting operational metrics, with last month’s collections topping $9K and underwriting forecasts projecting starting rents of $8.2K per month in its first year. Spread across 2,800 square feet, this 7-bed, 4-bath unit features thoughtfully designed living spaces and an expansive yard. An average tenancy exceeding four months further highlights the stability of The Prince's cash flows.

Atlanta’s booming economy, fueled by Fortune 500 expansions and a 25% population surge since 2010, coupled with a critical shortage of affordable housing, creates a perfect storm for investment. The market enjoys a 94% occupancy rate driven by key sectors like healthcare and tech, while rents have climbed 8% year-over-year. PadSplit’s rents, maintained at 30% to 50% below traditional market rates, ensure strong, consistent tenant demand, especially among cost-burdened renters.

From a financial perspective, The Prince delivers a strong Year 1 yield of 9.7% before growth, an annual levered IRR of 16.1%, and a levered MOIC of 2.6x (translating every dollar invested into a potential $2.60 return over the life of the investment). With a projected levered profit of $572.35k and over $68,000 invested in just two days, now is the time to act on this cash-flowing gem before it’s too late.

• Tim Cook doing his best Steve Jobs impression as he teases out the “newest member of the family” that is set to arrive on February 19th. It has been 3 years since Apple released the last iPhone SE, and the new member is expected to be the 4th generation iPhone SE.
• Pretty crazy an anti-vaxxer is now the head of health in the US. RFK was confirmed earlier this week as Health and Human Services Secretary.
• Zelle doing (insert best Dr. Evil impersonation) $1 trillion dollars in total volume last year, which is the most ever by a peer-to-peer platform.

The internet and computers arose from LSD-fueled parties in San Francisco where a local house band by the name of Grateful Dead played. I kid you not. Ever wonder how the internet came about? Ever hear about Ada Lovelace and the Thinking Machine? Want to know what Bill Gates used to do to stay up on coding sprints (hint: it dyed his hands orange)? The book explores the very first description of a computer through the creation of the internet all the way to the smart phones of today.

While I hadn’t really been recommended this book by anyone, I am incredibly glad I came across it. The book taught me about the world we live in today, and as a result, I can leverage that knowledge in what we are building today. Unlike any other Isaacson book out there.

⭐ 4.87 / 5.0 in my book (no pun intended)

1. “If Bruce Dickinson wants more cowbell, we should probably give him more cowbell.”
2. "I’m in a glass case of emotion!"
3. “Let's not downplay the fact that that is Stonewall Jackson’s ghost right there.”

A day on Venus is longer than a year on Venus! 😲 It takes Venus about 243 Earth days to rotate once on its axis, but only 225 Earth days to complete an orbit around the Sun.

1. Saturday Night Live (Cowbell guy, Will Ferrell)
2. Anchorman (Ron Burgundy? Double quote)
3. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues (Rob Burgundy? One more time)